2022 Oscars Predictions: Who Will Win/Who Should Win

The 2022 Oscars are here and despite recent controversies over presenters and cutting a few categories from the show, I always get excited for Oscar night. There are quite a few categories that seem locked up, but there is still a number of that categories are still up in the air, including Best Actress and Best Picture. And, as always, there are always surprises, which I’m hoping for. Here are my final 2022 Oscars predictions.

 

 

Best Picture

Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

• It’s the little movie that could versus the Netflix powerhouse. CODA won the SAG ensemble award and Producers Guild award, two of the major precursors for Best Picture. The team has been campaigning hard and everyone seems to love them. As for The Power of the Dog, the Academy clearly loves the movie, giving it the most nominations of any film (12) and director Jane Campion a lock to win Best Director. With Dune taking most of the technical awards and the acting nominations basically sealed, will The Power of the Dog’s only win come in Best Director out of its twelve nominations? It doesn’t feel right, but that might be the case. I’m picking CODA to pull off the win, but if The Power of the Dog picks up a few technical awards early on in the night, you might see something different.

WILL WIN: CODA

SHOULD WIN: Licorice Pizza

Best Director

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

• Campion will be the third woman ever to win Best Director in one of the sure bets of the night.

WILL WIN: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

SHOULD WIN: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Best Actor

Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick…Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

• Smith has this one in the bag. He’s overdue, he’s won all the precursors, and the Academy likes his movie. Get ready for one of the best speeches of the night.

WILL WIN: Will Smith, King Richard

SHOULD WIN: Will Smith, King Richard

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer

• Best Actress is one of the hardest categories to predict this year. I genuinely feel like there is a case to be made for every nominee to win. Jessica Chastain has been surging lately, having won SAG and Critics Choice awards, word around town is Penelope Cruz has been gaining momentum for her career-best performance in Parallel Mothers, and you can’t count out past winners Nicole Kidman and Olivia Colman or critic favorite Kristen Stewart. This one is tough.

WILL WIN: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

SHOULD WIN: Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

Best Supporting Actor

Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

• Kostur has this one all but locked up. Should be another excellent speech.

WILL WIN: Troy Kotsur, CODA

SHOULD WIN: Troy Kotsur, CODA

Best Supporting Actress

Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

• If the Academy embraces King Richard, Aunjanue Ellis could be a sneaky and worthy winner. But based on precursors and the history of the performance, DeBose has this one locked in.

WILL WIN: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

SHOULD WIN: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Best Adapted Screenplay

CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog

• This is a great list of nominees, all of which could win. The Power of the Dog is a great adaptation, but CODA won at BAFTA and the WGA awards, so I’m leaning that way.

WILL WIN: CODA

SHOULD WIN: The Power of the Dog

Best Original Screenplay

Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World

• Like Adapted Screenplay, a few films could win this one. Is this where they reward Kenneth Branagh’s passion project Belfast? Is this where Paul Thomas Anderson gets his long-overdue Oscar? Will there be a surprise? This is a tough one.

WILL WIN: Belfast

SHOULD WIN: Licorice Pizza

Best Documentary Feature

Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul (Or…When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) 
Writing With Fire

WILL WIN: Summer of Soul (Or…When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) 

SHOULD WIN: Flee

• All great documentaries and though I am personally rooting for Jonas Poher Rasmussen’s incredible Flee, Questlove’s Summer of Soul will be a wonderful winner.

Best Animated Feature Film

Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon

• It’s a battle between The Mitchells vs the Machines and Encanto and with the infectious songs and late-season surge of Bruno, I’m picking Disney to pick up yet another win.

WILL WIN: Encanto

SHOULD WIN: Flee

Best International Feature Film

Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Yanna (Bhutan)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

• Though there is a lot of support for The Worst Person in the World and Flee, Drive My Car earned Best Picture and Best Director nominations, so it’s clearly the frontrunner here.

WILL WIN: Drive My Car

SHOULD WIN: Flee

REST OF THE CATEGORIES

Best Cinematography

Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story

WILL WIN: Dune

SHOULD WIN: The Power of the Dog

Best Film Editing

Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Tick, Tick…Boom!

WILL WIN: King Richard

SHOULD WIN: The Power of the Dog

Best Original Score

Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog

WILL WIN: Dune

SHOULD WIN: The Power of the Dog

Best Original Song

“Be Alive,” King Richard, Beyoncé Knowles-Carter, Dixson
“Dos Oroguitos,” Encanto, Lin-Manuel Miranda
“Down to Joy,” Belfast, Van Morrison
“No Time To Die,” No Time To Die, Billie Eilish, Finneas O’Connell
“Somehow You Do,” Four Good Days, Diane Warren

WILL WIN: “No Time To Die,” No Time To Die, Billie Eilish, Finneas O’Connell

SHOULD WIN: “No Time To Die,” No Time To Die, Billie Eilish, Finneas O’Connell

Best Production Design

Dune
Nightmare Alley
Power
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story

WILL WIN: Dune

SHOULD WIN: Nightmare Alley

Best Costume Design

Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story

WILL WIN: Cruella

SHOULD WIN: West Side Story

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci

WILL WIN: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

SHOULD WIN: Dune

Best Sound

Belfast
Dune
No Time To Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

WILL WIN: Dune

SHOULD WIN: Dune

Best Visual Effects

Dune
Free Guy
No Time To Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home

WILL WIN: Dune

SHOULD WIN: Dune

Best Live Action Short Film

Ala Kacchu – Take and Run
The Dress
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold

WILL WIN: The Long Goodbye

SHOULD WIN: The Long Goodbye

Best Animated Short Film

Affairs of the Art
Bestia
Boxballet
Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper

WILL WIN: Robin Robin

SHOULD WIN: The Windshield Wiper

Best Documentary Short Subject

Audible
Lead Me Home
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs of Benazir
When We Were Bullies

WILL WIN: Audible

SHOULD WIN: The Queen of Basketball

 

 

 

 

 

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